2010/01/20

Haiti quake could not have been predicted:experts 專家︰海地地震不大可能預報

◎魏國金

The catastrophic earthquake that struck Haiti could not have been predicted, experts said , but seismologists have made progress in identifying areas likely to be hit by major quakes in the next few decades.

專家說,襲擊海地的災難性地震不大可能預報,但地震學家對未來幾十年恐遭強震襲擊地區的確認已有進展。

Geologists have long been aware that a major earthquake could rock the fault line that runs through the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince. The hard part was figuring out when.

長久以來地質學家已察覺一個強震恐撼動穿越海地首都太子港的斷層線。困難的部分是算出何時會發生。

U.S. geologists presented a paper in 2008 concluding that Port-au-Prince, which had not been hit by a major seismic event since 1751, could face a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. But they could not say if that quake would come the next day or in 30 years.

美國地質學家在一份2008年發表的論文中結論說,自1751年以來沒有遭受重大地震襲擊的太子港恐面臨7.2規模的強震。但他們無法說出該地震是否將在明天或30年後到來。

"Where we are getting better is earthquake forecasting, where scientists are able to recognize what areas are likely to have a big earthquake sometime in the next several decades," Stuart Sipkin, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told Reuters.

「我們有所進步之處是地震的預測,在此科學家能辨認出什麼地區在未來幾十年的有朝一日恐有大地震,」美國地質調查所的地質學家史都華.斯普金告訴路透說。

That forecasting is done by measuring the amount of stress built up in a particular fault, then extrapolating how much energy could ultimately be released. Even then, the earthquake could strike at any number of points along a fault line, and evacuating people from one area ahead of a quake could put them into harm’s way.

那樣的預測是藉由測量在特定斷層中增加的壓力,然後推定最後將釋出多少能量而作成。儘管如此,地震可能襲擊斷層線上許多點,而在地震之前疏散人群恐使他們置於險境。

新聞辭典

any number of︰好多、許多。例句︰I must have seen her any number of times.(我不知見過她多少次了。)

even then︰甚至直到那時、儘管如此。例句︰She explained everything, but even then he was unwilling to forgive her.(她什麼都解釋了,但即使如此他仍不願原諒她。)

put into harm’s way︰置於險境,out of harm’s way指在安全地帶、脫險。例句︰ The program will keep your data out of harm’s way.(這個程式將使你的資料免於損害。)

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